Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 36.539302 41.389291 47.126665 54.556721 64.151267 76.476044 94.161563
2025-05-04 30.206670 36.182907 44.003939 55.488906 72.959204 100.792614 155.197126
2025-05-11 26.023558 32.377189 41.305930 55.741624 80.991250 130.796890 275.061775
2025-05-18 22.845877 29.166627 38.502913 54.716759 86.483651 163.049374 530.816386
2025-05-25 20.772486 27.103839 36.866731 54.957329 94.570234 214.469191 1705.547188
2025-06-01 19.043063 25.255878 35.155169 54.468374 100.968315 277.691000 177258.589835
2025-06-08 17.596154 23.633415 33.503723 53.582745 106.052023 357.138873 NaN
2025-06-15 16.423239 22.296093 32.112475 52.834283 111.289276 472.362966 NaN
2025-06-22 15.479383 21.221347 31.016637 52.429508 117.619508 666.798376 NaN
2025-06-29 14.532576 20.049708 29.587337 50.927483 119.435769 871.547870 NaN
2025-07-06 14.254885 19.960461 30.139653 54.244884 143.107082 3043.061890 NaN
2025-07-13 13.582818 19.137145 29.178796 53.549928 149.358708 9410.088984 NaN
2025-07-20 13.078710 18.574069 28.681748 54.025272 163.031393 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 12.643518 18.097532 28.302677 54.753902 180.218204 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 12.200158 17.572750 27.765288 54.914684 195.230006 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.702170 16.916335 26.887591 53.876521 200.941145 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 11.342454 16.487339 26.448067 54.093414 218.431547 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.961505 15.995657 25.827171 53.609183 230.002912 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.583772 15.488758 25.129872 52.742947 237.302442 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 10.243015 15.032629 24.507318 52.012166 245.932838 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.948230 14.647105 24.010282 51.617041 259.149819 NaN NaN
2025-09-21 9.605236 14.155324 23.241251 50.152728 256.411120 NaN NaN
2025-09-28 9.568814 14.237922 23.768425 53.385019 336.849777 NaN NaN